Travels from Austin, Texas, USA
Peter Zeihan's speaking fee falls within range: $20,000 to $25,000 (Speakers' virtual presentation fees are generally around 60-80% of the in-person fee range noted here.)
As a geopolitical strategist, Peter Zeihan shapes the statistical facts of geography and populations into a compelling narrative about global politics, markets, and economic trends, helping industry leaders navigate the complex mix of geopolitical risks and opportunities. He is the best-selling author of two eye-opening and much discussed books, The Accidental Superpower and The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America.
He is an expert on global energy, demographics, and security. He translates the information about how the politics of place has an influence on governing, with relevance to the current administration.
In his career, Zeihan has ranged from working for the US State Department in Australia, to the DC think tank community, to helping develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies. Mr. Zeihan founded his own firm — Zeihan on Geopolitics — in 2012 in order to provide a select group of clients with direct, custom analytical products. Today those clients represent a vast array of sectors including energy majors, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities and the U.S. military.
Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan is a global energy, demographic and security expert.
Zeihan’s worldview marries the realities of geography and populations to a deep understanding of how global politics impact markets and economic trends, helping industry leaders navigate today’s complex mix of geopolitical risks and opportunities. With a keen eye toward what will drive tomorrow’s headlines, his irreverent approach transforms topics that are normally dense and heavy into accessible, relevant takeaways for audiences of all types.
His freshman book, The Accidental Superpower, forecasts the coming collapse of the global order. It debuted in 2014.
His newest project, The Absent Superpower, published in December 2016. It highlights what comes next.
Peter Zeihan reveals why the U.S. will maintain its competitive advantage and how it may be the only developed nation where things will be "normal" more than a decade from now. Zeihan's analysis is not based on speculation or a series of "what if's", but rather key factors we can see today: geography, demographics, and energy sources.
Throughout history, the U.S.' unique location and terrain has proven to be an asset; not only does the Mississippi River System provide it with the largest area of fertile land in the world, its rivers make up the most extensive group of navigable waters on the planet. Sandwiched between two oceans, the U.S. has also demonstrated that it is the most naturally secure country, a characteristic that made it the last market standing after two world wars left every other empire and superpower in ruin, allowing the U.S. to craft the trade systems that govern today's international economy. "As a percentage of GDP we are the least involved economy in the world and most of what we trade is with our partners in North America," Zeihan explains. "If we ever have a bad hair day, the global system is predicated on American commitment to a system that we stopped using 30 years ago."
The other undeniable piece of the puzzle is the fact that the U.S. is the only developed nation today that has a Generation Y large enough to replace retiring generations as drivers of GDP. With the absence of a future consumer base and labor force in Asian and European countries, other developed nations face actual physical obstacles to maintaining or recovering economic momentum. "In just 15 years we go from today where the United States is the largest consumer and largest financial power to one in just 15 years where we're the only financial power and only consumer power," Zeihan remarks.
Peter Zeihan examines geography, demographic trends, and energy developments to craft a reliable map of our future. With sharp humor and solid easy-to-follow analyses of world markets, Zeihan unpacks how population and natural resources will create opportunities for some nations and towering challenges for others throughout the next decades. The charismatic geopolitical strategist provides a unique and deep understanding of the physical factors that ultimately drive economic and political realities as well as how businesses, governments, and individuals can best prepare for what’s to come.
THE END OF EUROPE
Five recessions in nine years. A litany of debt debacles. Ossified institutions incapable of change. Rising populism. Refugee floods. Russians growling at the border. And that’s the good news. Despite a decade of crisis none of Europe’s problems have had their root causes addressed, and now time is simply up. Everything that makes modern, wealthy, cosmopolitan, democratic Europe possible is breaking apart, and the Europeans are about to lose far more than “merely” a decade. Discover what makes Europe tick, what is tearing it down, and most of all, what is next.
A WORLD WITHOUT CHINA
Three pillars support modern China’s success: global trade, internal political unity, and easy money. With those three pillars, China has managed to shake 2000 years of war and occupation and remake itself as one of the world’s most powerful countries. Yet none of these three pillars can stand without American assistance, and that cooperation is ending. China’s “inevitable” rise isn’t simply over, it is about to go into screeching, unrelenting, dismembering reverse. But that’s hardly the end of history. When a country falls — particularly the world’s top manufacturing power — the ripples affect countries and industries near and far. Learn who benefits and who loses in a world without China.
THE TRUMP DOCTRINE
Presidents come and go, but geography doesn’t change. Gain understanding of the world the Trump administration has inherited, and get a glimpse into how the new White House will grapple with crises imminent, opportunities golden and everything in between.
THE RETURN OF DOLLAR DIPLOMACY
The Mideast wars have left the United States exhausted and leery. Immigration has become a four-letter word. Shale has severed most of the ties that bind. In sum, the United States has lost interest in the wider world and so is already hip-deep in a decade-long retrenchment. That will change not just the world, but America itself. Such evolutions will make next phase of American engagement not just more thoughtful and surgical, but also more lucrative.
AMBER WAVES OF (AMERICAN) GRAIN: THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURE
Modern agricultural patterns are the result of three largely unrelated factors: low-risk global trade, insatiable Asian demand, and unlimited cheap credit. Within the next five years, all three of these trends will not just evaporate, but invert. When that happens, the only thing that will hurt more than the gradual loss of demand will be the sudden collapse of supply. However, none of this impacts the American producer – it therefore will be the United States that will reap the benefits of its productivity and stability for decades to come.
NO ASSEMBLY REQUIRED: THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL MANUFACTURING
The world of manufacturing is an endlessly specialized venture, with most manufacturers sourcing components from scores of facilities across a dozen or more countries. But what if the ability to sail components from site to site became compromised? What if capital availability proves insufficient to update industrial bases as technology evolves? What if intermediate and end markets become less desirable – or less accessible? All that and more is about to happen, which signals the end of manufacturing as we know it. The successful manufacturers of the future will be those who can command access to raw materials, capital, labor and markets – all in the same location.
LIFE AFTER FREE TRADE
Bretton Woods is the cornerstone of the modern system. The concept of countries being able to buy and sell their wares openly on the international marketplace is inviolable. The freedom to sail one’s products around the world is a given. Everything from the transfer of money to the accessibility of energy is sacrosanct. All this and more is artificial. All this and more is about to end. What replaces it will either be wondrous or damning. Your outcome depends upon where you live.
THE NORTH AMERICAN DRUG WAR
By nearly any definition Mexico should be a failed state, yet because of its location adjacent to the global superpower it instead will be one of the world’s most successful countries. Within the story of Mexico lies the greatest opportunities — and gravest threats — of our time.
THE NEW FACE OF TERRORISM
The constellations of factors that allowed groups like al Qaeda to function are coming undone, ushering in an age in which transcontinental terrorism will cease to be an issue of significance. But that does not mean that the world will be terror-free. Hardly. It “simply” means that that the terrorism of tomorrow can be mapped.
THE CHINA WARS
The growth of the Chinese economy has been exceptional. But as much as we all “know” that China is the country of the future, in reality the Chinese system is already breaking apart. Chinese “success” is based upon a financial structure that is cracking, a demographic moment that has nearly ended, and an international environment over which it has no influence. What follows will not end Chinese participation in the global system, but it will certainly end Beijing’s.
THE NEW FACE OF IMMIGRATION
Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free… This has been the mantra that Americans have championed — and sometimes resisted — since the foundation of the Republic. The idea that America is where the poor can gain a new start. In the near future this sentiment will prove only half true. The next wave of migration will be the cream of the global labor pool.
THE NEW MIDDLE EAST
For decades the Middle East has been trapped in a simple, irresistible tension: the world needs the region’s oil, so the global superpower keeps the region locked in place. Within a very few short years that lock will be removed, and the region’s politics will unravel explosively. What comes next will challenge every country in the region — many to the breaking point.
SOUTHEAST ASIA RISES
The world of the future will feature reduced trade opportunities, more difficult access to energy and more challenging security concerns. But in one corner of the world exists a series of relationships that will stand the test of time. Southeast Asia will emerge as an echo of the free trade of times past, making it one of the very few parts of the world to survive more or less as we know it now, perhaps even with some surprises to the upside.
THE END OF THE WORLD…AND OTHER OPPORTUNITIES
Conflicts Russian, Middle Eastern and Asian are about to trigger the greatest energy crisis in history. Dozens of countries are slipping into deflationary spirals from which there is little hope of escape. And America’s swerving into demagogic populism will unhinge its entire alliance network. The world as we know it is in its final days. Find out how and why it all came to be, how and why it is all falling apart. But most of all find out how the world’s end heralds the greatest expansion in American power and security in the history of the Republic.
SEVEN(TEEN) YEARS OF LEAN: THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL FINANCE
In the decades since World War II, everything from computerization to securitization to the rise of the developing world has made the financial sector central to modern economic activity. But never forget that modern finance itself is an outgrowth of revenues generated by the global free trade order. Never forget that the past two decades have witnessed the richest and cheapest supplies of capital in history. A political decision made seven decades ago created the trade order. A fleeting demographic moment created the capital richness. Both have nearly run their course. Very soon we will bid finance as we know it goodbye, and the world will be much poorer for it. A few locations, however, will find the wreckage easier to struggle through than others. For those lucky few, the world will be their oyster.
SUPERSIZE ME: THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL ENERGY
The global energy sector is as complicated and opaque as it is omnipresent and essential, and it has adapted to not simply the changes in the global economic system, but the global political system. Countries that were weak to nonexistent in ages past now are major players in global energy markets, both as producers and consumers. The system that has allowed this evolution now is under fire, and soon the stability that has enabled the energy sector to create its global webwork will end. What will follow will be a world both more chaotic and poorer, one in which the process of finding, producing, transporting and refining energy will simply be beyond the military and financial capacity of most players. Only the largest, smartest and richest entities will be able to maintain – much less expand – their networks. Far from its final days, the era of the supermajor has not yet begun.
THE SHALE REVOLUTION
The advent of the shale era is remaking the American energy complex. The combination of at-home investment and a lower need for Middle Eastern involvement frees up considerable American resources. The result will be a different sort of American economy, a different sort of American diplomacy, and a different role for the United States on the global stage.
THE AMERICAN AGE
Americans think of themselves as set apart from the rest of the world, and to a certain degree they are correct. But it is not that Americans are ‘better’ or ‘more free’ that makes them different, instead that they enjoy supreme geographic positioning and favorable demography — something that is not currently enjoyed by any other major power. Played as little as twenty years forward, this will result in an American-dominated international system with all of the economic and strategic benefits that such implies. But it is a very different world from the one we now know.
WHAT EVERY FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL SHOULD KNOW ABOUT GEOPOLITICS
Geopolitics is the study of how place impacts people — whether that impact be cultural, military, economic, political…or financial. Everything from how banks lend to how stocks are traded is heavily colored by where one lives, and understanding the unspoken — and often unacknowledged — rules of the game can prove critical to financial success. Zeihan explains how geography impacts the various regions differently, how this elevates some sectors while enervating others, and what sort of surprises — both good and bad — are about to burst onto the stage.
LIFE AFTER EUROPE
The entire European experiment occurred within the Cold War framework that was both artificial and imposed from outside. That framework is dissolving and anything that used it as a foundation — up to and including the euro — is now dissolving with it. Zeihan will lay out why Europe’s strengths — not its debts — have made the euro’s fall inevitable, as well as what life after the common currency will look like not just in Europe, but around the world. The picture is not as dark as you might think.
POWERS OF YESTERDAY, POWERS OF TOMORROW
Americans believe that their greatest days are behind them and that a series of new powers is rising up to displace them. On the contrary, America’s best days — militarily, economically, financially and culturally — are still ahead of them. In fact, many of the states that the Americans feel are up-and-comers — most notably China, Russia and India — are merely experiencing a historical moment in the sun courtesy of factors utterly beyond their control. Most of the powers of tomorrow are countries that the Americans either have very little knowledge of. The major powers of 2030 will not based in Beijing or Moscow, but in Jakarta, Buenos Aires, Warsaw, Istanbul and Mexico City.
THE ALBERTA QUESTION
As the global system evolves no country is better positioned than Canada. Very soon Canada’s choices will be about how to take advantage of opportunities, rather than how to avoid complications. But in this very silver lining is a very dark cloud. The same evolutions that will allow Canada unprecedented opportunities for wealth and respect also hold the possibility of damaging the Canadian state. This time the dangers do not originate from the United States, but from within Canada itself. And they could very well prove mortal.
The emergence of Brazil, Russia, India and China offered the possibility of remaking the global system. Well, it was fun while it lasted. Each BRIC country now faces their own custom-made nightmare, with only one of them likely even having a future as a country.
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— ASSOCIATION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION EXECUTIVES
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capital markets should have regular de-brieﬁngs with Peter.”
— RIMROCK CAPITAL
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One of our top 5 speakers of all time.”
— SOCIETY OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS FELLOWS
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The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America
The world is changing in ways most of us find incomprehensible. Terrorism spills out of the Middle East into Europe. Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and Japan vie to see who can be most aggressive. Financial breakdown in Asia and Europe guts growth, challenging hard-won political stability.
Yet for the Americans, these changes are fantastic. Alone among the world’s powers, only the United States is geographically wealthy, demographically robust, and energy secure. That last piece — American energy security — is rapidly emerging as the most critical piece of the global picture.
The American shale revolution does more than sever the largest of the remaining ties that bind America’s fate to the wider world. It re-industrializes the United States, accelerates the global order’s breakdown, and triggers a series of wide ranging military conflicts that will shape the next two decades. The common theme? Just as the global economy tips into chaos, just as global energy becomes dangerous, just as the world really needs the Americans to be engaged, the United States will be…absent.
In 2014’s The Accidental Superpower, geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan made the case that geographic, demographic and energy trends were unravelling the global system. Zeihan takes the story a step further in The Absent Superpower, mapping out the threats and opportunities as the world descends into Disorder.
The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder
In the bestselling tradition of The World Is Flat and The Next 100 Years, THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER will be a much discussed, contrarian, and eye-opening assessment of American power.
Near the end of the Second World War, the United States made a bold strategic gambit that rewired the international system. Empires were abolished and replaced by a global arrangement enforced by the U.S. Navy. With all the world’s oceans safe for the first time in history, markets and resources were made available for everyone. Enemies became partners.
We think of this system as normal – it is not. We live in an artificial world on borrowed time.
In THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER, international strategist Peter Zeihan examines how the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade; how much of the planet is aging into a mass retirement that will enervate markets and capital supplies; and how, against all odds, it is the ever-ravenous American economy that-alone among the developed nations-is rapidly approaching energy independence. Combined, these factors are doing nothing less than overturning the global system and ushering in a new (dis)order.
For most, that is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep an increasingly dangerous energy market. Only the United States boasts a youth population large enough to escape the sucking maw of global aging. Most important, geography will matter more than ever in a de-globalizing world, and America’s geography is simply sublime.
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