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    Born and raised in Argentina, Mr. Smith colors his writing and presentations with a bi-cultural international perspective.

    Mr. Smith earned his bachelor′s degree with honors in economics from Dartmouth College and his master’s degree in finance with distinction from the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

    His broad perspective on the world economy and financial markets was gained through a 35-year career in the financial arena, including securities analysis with Wells Fargo Bank, Shuman Agnew (an NYSE-member firm later acquired by Morgan Stanley) and Capital Analysts, a national NASD-member firm; mergers and acquisitions with Piper Aircraft Corporation; national securities underwriting as president and CEO of Alma Securities, an NASD-member firm.

    As author of Cyclical Investing for 24 years he achieved an uncanny record of accurate predictions, including:

    • The 1986 oil price crash and subsequent booming economy and financial markets

    • The 1987 stock market crash. Exit signal given October 16, 1987, 3 days before crash.Rebounding economy and stock market. Re-entry signal October 31, 1987.
    • The 1990-91 Gulf War, oil-price spike, stock market slump and recession
    • The sluggish stock market in 1994
    • The resumption of the bull market in 1995
    • The peak in the stock market in 2000. Exit signal given January 4, 2000
    • The recession of 2001
    • The bull market in gold immediately following 9/11/01
    • The devaluation of the dollar beginning in 2002
    • The Third Oil Shock beginning in 2003 and ensuing inflationThe economic and stock market rebound in 2003. Re-entry signals April-June 2003
    • The Panic of 2008 and subsequent stock market plunge

    He ceased publishing Cyclical Investing in July 2008, in order to dedicate his full attention to writing geopolitical commentary in David L. Smith′s Cassandra Chronicles (An invitation to think outside the box by “studying the present in light of the past for purposes of the future.” – J.M. Keynes), a publication he began writing in April 2003.

    He is widely quoted in the print and broadcast press, including national magazines such as Money and Financial Planning, The Financial Times of London’s The Banker and newspapers including The Wall Street Journal Online, television, including CNBC, PBS and numerous local television and radio stations.


David L. Smith Speaker Videos Back to top

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Speeches / Speaking Engagements Back to top


    PROFIT AND PERIL IN 2008 AND BEYOND
    And The Upside of the Downside

    When the Tech-Dot-Com bubble burst in 2000 and 9/11 traumatized the world economy, we were reminded of the peril as well as profit in today’s new economy. David L. Smith saw trouble coming long before it hit. As the millennium approached and sunshine pundits saw nothing but blue sky ahead, Smith clearly warned his audiences of approaching “clouds in the silver lining,” that could rain on the economy. He also provided strategies to avoid the dangers of crashing stock markets, international crises, a sagging economy and “sticky” long-term interest rates.

    His contrarian resource allocation strategies-- recommending a 3-year exit from the stock market beginning January 4, 2000 and ending in April 2003 -- proved to be the most valuable information his audiences could use and the most expensive advice to ignore. Long before Chairman Bernanke uttered the “R” word in April 2008, Smith warned of the dangers of the “D” word, potentially another Great Depression caused by “cascading defaults” stemming from a meltdown in U.S. housing and recommended winning investment strategies.

    Today, with singular independence of mind and uncanny insight, Smith explains what is going on in the global economy and financial markets—the good, the bad and the ugly. He discusses current and projected economic conditions; monetary and fiscal policy; international trade; currency, energy, financial and investment markets.

    Recognizing the ancient Chinese wisdom in the definition of “Crisis,” namely “Danger” and “Opportunity,” Smith always finds the “Upside of the Downside,” clearly establishing a blueprint for profit in times of financial peril. Learn how to avoid surprises and deploy business and personal resources to avoid losses and capture profits in volatile times.

    If you want “conventional wisdom” try the punditocracy. However, if you want to know what is really going on and how to profit from it personally and professionally, listen to David L. Smith.

    The Asian Caper
    How to Surf the Coming Financial Tsunami

    Following the massive devaluations in the wake of the “Asian Flu” in 1997, the economies of Asia have aggressively accumulated vast trade surpluses with the U.S., in particular. Asians have recycled their dollar surpluses back into the U.S. economy, producing bubbles in the U.S. stock and housing markets, which in turn have stimulated U.S. demand for Asian exports. Former Fed Chairman Paul Volker has warned that “This seemingly comfortable pattern can’t go on forever,” adding “Altogether the circumstances seem to me as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember.”

    Smith addresses four critical related questions:

    • When are Asians likely to stop lending money to the U.S.?
    • What will happen to the U.S. economy and financial markets when they do?
    • Where will Asians then invest their money?
    • What can consumers, investors and business decision-makers do to avoid loss and capture profits in the aftermath of the Asian financial tsunami?

    The answers might just be the most valuable information you can use, and the most expensive advice to ignore.

    The “Third Oil Shock”
    Avoiding Loss and Capturing Gains from the Developing Oil Crisis

    The economic outcome for the foreseeable future will be largely determined by the contest between the interests of industrial capital and petroleum over the price and availability of oil. As a raw material, lubricant and primary source of energy, oil is the global economy’s most critical commodity. Consequently, an understanding of current and projected oil prices, availability, sources and uses over the next decade is essential for decision-makers in both the private and public sectors.

    In his ground-breaking presentation, Houston-based economist and oil-market commentator David L. Smith assesses global oil supply and demand conditions, citing respected authorities in the field, enabling his audiences to anticipate how the price and availability of oil will affect their business and personal lives. Oil prices have quintupled in the past five years, fulfilling Smith’s longstanding predictions of a “Third Oil Shock.” What’s ahead for global oil markets?

    By revealing the dynamics of the international oil market on the world economy, Smith shows how to position resources to avoid losses and capture gains in a world dominated by volatile oil prices.

    Other Presentations Include:

    • THE CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS: Christianity vs. Islam Redux. Accommodation or Armageddon?
    • EAST IS EAST AND WEST IS WEST: The Asian-Pacific and European Economic Outlook
    • FIVE AND DIME: Strategies for investment success
    • PROHIBITION’S HANGOVER: The Income Tax -- Why a Graduated National Sales Tax is Better
    • ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF ELECTION 2008


David L. Smith Speaker Testimonials Back to top

    CLIENT TESTIMONIALS:

    • "Let me take this opportunity to thank you for your presentation, ′Profit and Peril in the Third Millennium.′ Our audience of electric utility senior executives was particularly interested in your observations from a historical perspective, taking them through the megacycles of the human enterprise and the history of the U.S. stock market. Your predictions for the next turn of events in the market were ′eye-openers,′ and, together with the present market volatility, caused significant discussion for several days. We particularly appreciated your efforts to customize the presentation to fit the interests of our members. By doing so, your message was effective in driving home your points."

      -- Len Holland, Manager-AEIC Services, Association of Edison Illuminating Companies, Inc.

    • "Mr. Smith has spoken for us several times, and he always brings his best game, never disappoints. He′s a great educator as well as speaker whereby everyone walks away saying how much they learned while no one walks away wondering what he was trying to say. His two-hour presentation was very well received by all attendees as evidenced by the following comments taken from the speaker evaluation (on which he received 4.9 out of a possible 5 rating):
      Fascinating topic and speaker; great flow and preparedness
      Excellent use of overhead material to support and further demonstrate specifics
      Excellent! Clear and precise!
      Annual updates in 4th quarter would be great
      Speaks enthusiastically, keeps your attention
      Excellent. Very useful information

      -- Jo Lynne Hutchinson, Executive Director, The Financial Planning Association, Phoenix

    • "I wish to personally thank you for being a valuable part of the recent AAPL Annual Meeting. Those in attendance were impressed with the quality and timeliness of your presentation. Please accept our sincere gratitude for responding to our speaking request in such an eloquent fashion."

      -- Frank J. Bavendick, CPL, President, American Association of Petroleum Landmen

    • "Your well-researched presentation on NAFTA was right on the mark. I received many positive comments about the presentation from our members. They particularly enjoyed the customized links you created between NAFTA and the corrugated box industry, creating excellent take-home value."

      -- James F. Nolan, Vice President, Fibre Box Association

    • "Those of you who heard David Smith speak last year and kept track of his predictions know that he was 1,000% correct. Of all the speakers we have had over the past three years, Mr. Smith was probably the most well received and requested for a return."

      -- Newsletter, IAFP/Financial Planning Association

    • "Your gift to link current cyclical economic trends to winds buffeting our industry, along with specific short- and long-term tactics to successfully adjust for global factors uniquely met our needs. The results of our evaluation feedback forms in combination with the lively Q&A session following your presentation underscore the delivery of a service to our membership that was timely and valuable. Add NLGI I to a long list of very satisfied clients."

      -- S. Levi Pearson, P.E., President, National Lubricating Grease Institute

    • "Thank you for doing a terrific job and the LINC conference. As you can see from the evaluations, you were the top-rated speaker for the event. The audience enjoyed and found value in your presentation."

      -- Lyn Fisher, Financial Forum


    PARTIAL CLIENT LIST:

    Associations
    American Association of Individual Investors
    American Association of Petroleum Landmen
    American Institute of Certified Public Accountants
    American Society for Training and Development
    Association of Petroleum Rerefiners
    California Credit Union League
    Colorado Society of Certified Public Accountants
    Decorative Laminate Products Association
    Fibre Box Association
    Financial Planning Association
    Greater Houston Partnership
    Institute of Management Accountants
    International Association of Drilling Contractors
    National Association of Purchasing Managers
    National Association of Federal Credit Unions
    National Lubricating Grease Institute
    Office Business Center Association International
    Ohio-Michigan Equipment Dealers Association
    Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants
    Sales and Marketing Executives

    Corporations
    American Exploration Company
    Coca Cola
    Envirogas, Inc.
    Five States Energy Company
    Formica
    Lockheed Missiles and Space
    Magic Circle
    Parker and Parsley
    Maxwell Energy Company (Canada)
    Nextel
    NCE Resources (Canada)
    Paine Webber/Geodyne
    Performance Technologies, Inc.
    Purina Mills
    Stanford Research Institute
    St. Luke′s Hospital, Houston
    Swift Energy
    The St. Paul Companies
    Veritas Software

    Educational Institutions, Universities
    Chautauqua Institution, N.Y.
    College for Financial Planning, Denver, CO
    Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH
    Economic Roundtable of San Francisco, CA
    Institute of Certified Financial Planners
    Kingwood College, Kingwood, TX
    Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA
    The Aga Khan Development Network

    Investment Broker-Dealers
    American Investors
    American Pacific Securities
    Associated Planners
    Asset Management & Timing Services, Inc.
    Delta Life and Annuity
    Interbank Capital Partners
    Kavanaugh Securities
    Mutual Service Corporation
    North American Financial Group
    Private Ledger Financial Services
    Raymond James/Investment Management & Research
    Southmark Financial Securities
    Vantage Securities (Canada)




* Please note that while this speaker’s specific speaking fee falls within the range posted above (for Continental U.S. based events), fees are subject to change. For current fee information or international event fees (which are generally 50-75% more than U.S based event fees), please contact us.

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    CLIENT TESTIMONIALS:

    • "Let me take this opportunity to thank you for your presentation, ′Profit and Peril in the Third Millennium.′ Our audience of electric utility senior executives was particularly interested in your observations from a historical perspective, taking them through the megacycles of the human enterprise and the history of the U.S. stock market. Your predictions for the next turn of events in the market were ′eye-openers,′ and, together with the present market volatility, caused significant discussion for several days. We particularly appreciated your efforts to customize the presentation to fit the interests of our members. By doing so, your message was effective in driving home your points."

      -- Len Holland, Manager-AEIC Services, Association of Edison Illuminating Companies, Inc.

    • "Mr. Smith has spoken for us several times, and he always brings his best game, never disappoints. He′s a great educator as well as speaker whereby everyone walks away saying how much they learned while no one walks away wondering what he was trying to say. His two-hour presentation was very well received by all attendees as evidenced by the following comments taken from the speaker evaluation (on which he received 4.9 out of a possible 5 rating):
      Fascinating topic and speaker; great flow and preparedness
      Excellent use of overhead material to support and further demonstrate specifics
      Excellent! Clear and precise!
      Annual updates in 4th quarter would be great
      Speaks enthusiastically, keeps your attention
      Excellent. Very useful information

      -- Jo Lynne Hutchinson, Executive Director, The Financial Planning Association, Phoenix

    • "I wish to personally thank you for being a valuable part of the recent AAPL Annual Meeting. Those in attendance were impressed with the quality and timeliness of your presentation. Please accept our sincere gratitude for responding to our speaking request in such an eloquent fashion."

      -- Frank J. Bavendick, CPL, President, American Association of Petroleum Landmen

    • "Your well-researched presentation on NAFTA was right on the mark. I received many positive comments about the presentation from our members. They particularly enjoyed the customized links you created between NAFTA and the corrugated box industry, creating excellent take-home value."

      -- James F. Nolan, Vice President, Fibre Box Association

    • "Those of you who heard David Smith speak last year and kept track of his predictions know that he was 1,000% correct. Of all the speakers we have had over the past three years, Mr. Smith was probably the most well received and requested for a return."

      -- Newsletter, IAFP/Financial Planning Association

    • "Your gift to link current cyclical economic trends to winds buffeting our industry, along with specific short- and long-term tactics to successfully adjust for global factors uniquely met our needs. The results of our evaluation feedback forms in combination with the lively Q&A session following your presentation underscore the delivery of a service to our membership that was timely and valuable. Add NLGI I to a long list of very satisfied clients."

      -- S. Levi Pearson, P.E., President, National Lubricating Grease Institute

    • "Thank you for doing a terrific job and the LINC conference. As you can see from the evaluations, you were the top-rated speaker for the event. The audience enjoyed and found value in your presentation."

      -- Lyn Fisher, Financial Forum


    PARTIAL CLIENT LIST:

    Associations
    American Association of Individual Investors
    American Association of Petroleum Landmen
    American Institute of Certified Public Accountants
    American Society for Training and Development
    Association of Petroleum Rerefiners
    California Credit Union League
    Colorado Society of Certified Public Accountants
    Decorative Laminate Products Association
    Fibre Box Association
    Financial Planning Association
    Greater Houston Partnership
    Institute of Management Accountants
    International Association of Drilling Contractors
    National Association of Purchasing Managers
    National Association of Federal Credit Unions
    National Lubricating Grease Institute
    Office Business Center Association International
    Ohio-Michigan Equipment Dealers Association
    Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants
    Sales and Marketing Executives

    Corporations
    American Exploration Company
    Coca Cola
    Envirogas, Inc.
    Five States Energy Company
    Formica
    Lockheed Missiles and Space
    Magic Circle
    Parker and Parsley
    Maxwell Energy Company (Canada)
    Nextel
    NCE Resources (Canada)
    Paine Webber/Geodyne
    Performance Technologies, Inc.
    Purina Mills
    Stanford Research Institute
    St. Luke′s Hospital, Houston
    Swift Energy
    The St. Paul Companies
    Veritas Software

    Educational Institutions, Universities
    Chautauqua Institution, N.Y.
    College for Financial Planning, Denver, CO
    Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH
    Economic Roundtable of San Francisco, CA
    Institute of Certified Financial Planners
    Kingwood College, Kingwood, TX
    Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA
    The Aga Khan Development Network

    Investment Broker-Dealers
    American Investors
    American Pacific Securities
    Associated Planners
    Asset Management & Timing Services, Inc.
    Delta Life and Annuity
    Interbank Capital Partners
    Kavanaugh Securities
    Mutual Service Corporation
    North American Financial Group
    Private Ledger Financial Services
    Raymond James/Investment Management & Research
    Southmark Financial Securities
    Vantage Securities (Canada)


    PROFIT AND PERIL IN 2008 AND BEYOND
    And The Upside of the Downside

    When the Tech-Dot-Com bubble burst in 2000 and 9/11 traumatized the world economy, we were reminded of the peril as well as profit in today’s new economy. David L. Smith saw trouble coming long before it hit. As the millennium approached and sunshine pundits saw nothing but blue sky ahead, Smith clearly warned his audiences of approaching “clouds in the silver lining,” that could rain on the economy. He also provided strategies to avoid the dangers of crashing stock markets, international crises, a sagging economy and “sticky” long-term interest rates.

    His contrarian resource allocation strategies-- recommending a 3-year exit from the stock market beginning January 4, 2000 and ending in April 2003 -- proved to be the most valuable information his audiences could use and the most expensive advice to ignore. Long before Chairman Bernanke uttered the “R” word in April 2008, Smith warned of the dangers of the “D” word, potentially another Great Depression caused by “cascading defaults” stemming from a meltdown in U.S. housing and recommended winning investment strategies.

    Today, with singular independence of mind and uncanny insight, Smith explains what is going on in the global economy and financial markets—the good, the bad and the ugly. He discusses current and projected economic conditions; monetary and fiscal policy; international trade; currency, energy, financial and investment markets.

    Recognizing the ancient Chinese wisdom in the definition of “Crisis,” namely “Danger” and “Opportunity,” Smith always finds the “Upside of the Downside,” clearly establishing a blueprint for profit in times of financial peril. Learn how to avoid surprises and deploy business and personal resources to avoid losses and capture profits in volatile times.

    If you want “conventional wisdom” try the punditocracy. However, if you want to know what is really going on and how to profit from it personally and professionally, listen to David L. Smith.

    The Asian Caper
    How to Surf the Coming Financial Tsunami

    Following the massive devaluations in the wake of the “Asian Flu” in 1997, the economies of Asia have aggressively accumulated vast trade surpluses with the U.S., in particular. Asians have recycled their dollar surpluses back into the U.S. economy, producing bubbles in the U.S. stock and housing markets, which in turn have stimulated U.S. demand for Asian exports. Former Fed Chairman Paul Volker has warned that “This seemingly comfortable pattern can’t go on forever,” adding “Altogether the circumstances seem to me as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember.”

    Smith addresses four critical related questions:

    • When are Asians likely to stop lending money to the U.S.?
    • What will happen to the U.S. economy and financial markets when they do?
    • Where will Asians then invest their money?
    • What can consumers, investors and business decision-makers do to avoid loss and capture profits in the aftermath of the Asian financial tsunami?

    The answers might just be the most valuable information you can use, and the most expensive advice to ignore.

    The “Third Oil Shock”
    Avoiding Loss and Capturing Gains from the Developing Oil Crisis

    The economic outcome for the foreseeable future will be largely determined by the contest between the interests of industrial capital and petroleum over the price and availability of oil. As a raw material, lubricant and primary source of energy, oil is the global economy’s most critical commodity. Consequently, an understanding of current and projected oil prices, availability, sources and uses over the next decade is essential for decision-makers in both the private and public sectors.

    In his ground-breaking presentation, Houston-based economist and oil-market commentator David L. Smith assesses global oil supply and demand conditions, citing respected authorities in the field, enabling his audiences to anticipate how the price and availability of oil will affect their business and personal lives. Oil prices have quintupled in the past five years, fulfilling Smith’s longstanding predictions of a “Third Oil Shock.” What’s ahead for global oil markets?

    By revealing the dynamics of the international oil market on the world economy, Smith shows how to position resources to avoid losses and capture gains in a world dominated by volatile oil prices.

    Other Presentations Include:

    • THE CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS: Christianity vs. Islam Redux. Accommodation or Armageddon?
    • EAST IS EAST AND WEST IS WEST: The Asian-Pacific and European Economic Outlook
    • FIVE AND DIME: Strategies for investment success
    • PROHIBITION’S HANGOVER: The Income Tax -- Why a Graduated National Sales Tax is Better
    • ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF ELECTION 2008


Demo Video